• 汇率问题:中国动了谁的奶酪?

    by  • October 12, 2010 • 世界与中国 • 40 Comments

    近来美元不断贬值,导致其对欧元和日元的汇率降至8个月以来的最低水平。由于中国不愿让人民币升值,近日召开的国际货币基金组织(IMF)会议未能就避免“货币大战”的措施达成共识。IMF高官只能各打50大板,指出各国尤其是中美应该在汇率问题上合作并避免保护主义。有人讽刺说:“货币问题国际声明的价值还不及印刷它们的纸张。”

    人民币汇率是个积累了多年的老问题。中国政府其实考虑过是否升值,内部也有过相应讨论。但今年3月份做完人民币升值压力测试以后,政府决定不再考虑升值。据中国机电产品进出口商会测算,如人民币在短期内升值3%,家电、汽车、手机等生产企业利润将下降30%至50%,许多议价能力低的中小企业将面临亏损;中国纺织品进出口商会测算也很悲观,在其他生产要素成本和价格不变的情况下,人民币升值1个百分点,企业利润就减少1%。中央财经大学银行业研究中心的调研结果显示,如果人民币汇率上升20%,除了航空、造纸等行业外,大部分中小型制造企业将直接倒闭,上亿制造业劳工面临失业的危险。9月份温家宝总理在纽约谈到人民币升值将导致中国失业剧增的说法即根据这些报告。

    为了减轻压力,中国政府在6月下旬对人民币实施爬行盯住汇率制度,国际社会最开始兴奋过一阵,但很快发现一切都没有改变。为了保住本国制造业的出口机会不再缩减,一些国家采取了行动,比如日本在9月中旬结束为期6年的不干预汇市政策,抛售了大约价值200亿美元的日元。日本此举引发其他国家仿效,韩国、巴西、哥伦比亚、南非、泰国等国先后采取措施压低本国货币,以减轻出口业受到的冲击。不少国际金融专家认为,某种形式的“货币战争”已经爆发:美国正寻求让中国通胀,而中国则试图让美国通缩。但美国没有获得它预期的效果,世界其它国家则受到了牵连。

    发达国家目前正蒙受需求长期匮乏之苦。美国、日本、德国、法国、英国与意大利等六大高收入经济体当中,没有一个国家今年第二季度的GDP恢复到2008年第一季度的水平。更让美国与欧盟难受的是,美国与欧元区的核心通胀率已降至1%左右,通货紧缩已经来临。无论是贸易逆差国(如美国),还是顺差国(如日 本、德国)都希望实现出口拉动型增长。各国一致认为,中国是绝对的汇率干预者:2010年6月,中国外汇储备达到了2.45万亿美元,占全球总量的30%,在其GDP总值中所占比例则攀升到了50%的惊人水平。这种累积被视为一种巨额出口补贴。

    但各国对中国却一筹莫展。25年前,即1985年9月,法国、西德、日本、美国与英国政府在纽约的广场饭店(Plaza Hotel)举行会议,达成了共同诱导美元贬值的协议。日本当时由于汇率飙升损害了出口竞争力,加之美国强迫其削减经常账户盈余,日本选择了规模巨大的货币扩张,而不是亟需的结构性改革。随之产生的巨大泡沫,促成了上世纪90年代日本陷入“失落的十年”。尽管日本这“失去的十年”原因非常复杂,但在中国心目中,导致日本经济衰退的罪魁祸首就是日元升值。

    今天,美国及欧盟等国对中国怀有同样的渴望。但从来就没按照西方要求成为“国际社会负责任的成员国”的中国远不象当年的日本那样恭顺,它正不顾一切地避免陷入日本在《广场协议》后的悲惨命运。不幸的是,贸易战往往都是从这种态度发展而来。10月1日,37个国家在东京举行的副部长级会议签署了《防假冒盗版产品扩散条约》,这一条约明显针对中国而来。该条约的主要功能是批准海关官员在未接到版权所有者的申请或法院命令的情况下,可依其职权查扣仿冒商品。与会国家除美欧日本等之外,还有韩国、新加坡、摩洛哥等国。但被指生产大量仿冒盗版产品的中国并没有参加这次会议。汇率战升格为贸易战的苗头已隐约可见。

    对大多数国家而言,货币贬值可以刺激出口的增长从而创造新的就业机会。从这点来看,货币战争还刚刚开始,重构世界货币新秩序还需要一段时间,避免贸易战更需要各国通力合作。

    (原载何清涟VOA博客,2010年10月12日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2010/10/chinacurrency/

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    40 Responses to 汇率问题:中国动了谁的奶酪?

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    2. ChangLing
      October 12, 2010 at 20:27

      人民币汇率,外行看不明白;内行自己讲给自己听的太高深。何女士这篇深入浅出,仔细看倒是能够看懂。很想请何女士下次讲讲,为什么国内物价飞涨,人民币贬值,对外还要升值?

    3. Zhang
      October 13, 2010 at 00:56

      是啊,为什么美国寻求让中国通胀,而人民币贬值后却要对外升值。我想不明白啊。

    4. coofucoo
      October 13, 2010 at 05:45

      此文不妥,都是在罗列有利于美国的理由。中国的经济结构绝对不平衡,这个毋庸置疑。但是真要是把所有的问题归罪于人民币汇率,就必须回答为何日元在当年升值之后出口为何并不减少的问题。很多事情大家还是心里很明白的。

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