• 民富国安之梦何时圆?

    by  • October 20, 2010 • 经济分析 • 22 Comments

    中国政府郑重宣告,“十二五”期间中国的发展方式将从生存型向发展型转变,被列为“十二五规划”的重点之一是改善收入分配。

    其实,改善收入分配在“十五”与“十一五”期间均被列为规划重点。只是那时中国人大多没想到国富与民富并非同一回事,总相信党的宣传“大河涨水小河满”,以为国家富了,民众的收入自然会水涨船高。

    今年8月初那条中国GDP总量跃居世界第二的消息,终于让中国人看到了自身的真实处境:亲爱的Motherland虽然成为世界第二大经济体,但人均GDP却排在世界第103位。按市场的美元计算,中国的人均GDP仅相当于日本的1/10;按购买力平价计算,日本的人均GDP仍高达3.3万美元,中国的人均GDP只有6600美元,仅相当于日本的1/5。中日两国民众的富裕感相差悬殊。

    造成中国收入分配不均的原因,在20世纪90年代与21世纪零年代有所不同。在20世纪90年代,主要是机会不均等及权力市场化;而本世纪以来,除了上世纪形成的财富及社会资源占有格局之外,还有政府对民众生存资源的直接掠夺(主要是征地拆迁及引进污染企业)。因此要想改善收入分配与民生,中国政府至少得做几件事情:

    第一,让利于民。这让利有两重意思:一是在分配社会财富这块大蛋糕时,必须将政府的份额相对切得少一点,直白地说,就是让政府少收税。2008年以前,政府在GDP这块大蛋糕中切去的是四分之一,而2009年却达到了三分之一(32.2%)。二是要将政府财政收入用来满足公共福利,解决贫困、社会保障、教育、医疗等公共品的匮乏。

    这让利于民说起来容易,做起来却难。因为“十二五”期间中国政府还需要“保持强大的行动能力(包含维稳能力)”,这行动能力是需要钱来保证的。就在前不久中国国税总局局长肖捷在《中国改革》杂志撰文称,通过减税让利于民不现实。目前中国30%的宏观税负尚无法满足公共支出需求,今后十年中国税收占GDP比重还将继续上升。为了证明加税的合理性,肖大人还驳斥了国外某杂志在2009年“税负痛苦指数排行榜”中,将中国税负痛苦指数排列在世界第二位是谬误。

    第二,还公共资源产权于民。政府必须将资源控制权还给其真正主人――资源所在地的民众。做到这一点也很不容易,因为中国从上世纪90年代以来的财富增长,基本不象日本那样依靠技术进步,主要是依靠土地与资源支撑。也因此,中国国土上的任何资源――尤其是农村的资源,不管是土地、矿产、河流、古迹,只要被地方政府发现其价值,毫无例外地都被其以国家的名义强征。因为事涉民众生存资源,于是各地相继上演着一出出政府与民争利的暴力拆迁与暴力征地事件,造成了不少“失去土地的村庄”,造成了数千万无地可耕、无业可就、无处可去的“三无农民“。如今要让武装到牙齿的地方政府放弃与民争利,谈何容易?

    第三,尽可能地创造就业机会。让民众就业,就是让其获得参与生产蛋糕与分取蛋糕的资格。这对中国这个知识型劳力与低素质劳力都严重过剩的人口大国来说,也是个难以解决的天问级难题。按照官方数据,2009年底,中国大陆劳动力年龄人口 106,969万人,城乡就业人员总计77,995万人(农村的4亿多就业者按其耕地面积算其实只能算不完全就业),还有27%的人未能就业。这些失业者连工作都没有,自然无法参与分蛋糕。

    从物质的丰裕程度来看,中国目前已进入历史上最为丰裕的时期。但社会财富这块大蛋糕如果分配不好,政府又坚持继续在富国强兵的道路上狂奔,中国的发展方式还会停留于生存型,民富国安之梦只会是一块难以企及的画饼。

    (原载何清涟VOA博客,2010年10月20日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2010/10/gdp/

    About

    22 Responses to 民富国安之梦何时圆?

    1. Pingback: Tweets that mention 民富国安之梦何时圆? -- Topsy.com

    2. 11brad
      October 20, 2010 at 13:50

      何老师的动议非常好,利国利民,可是对既得利益者不利,估计十二五规划又是画饼充饥,习近平可能比胡锦涛还僵化。

    3. guoping
      October 20, 2010 at 17:01

      收入分配不公是中国改革以来的老问题。为什么解决不了?何老师的深刻分析揭示了原因所在。但这种情况下,要求政府停止掠夺,让利与民,岂不是与虎谋皮?

    4. tree&land
      October 21, 2010 at 12:15

      十多年前何先生就指出社会分配不公将造成极大的社会矛盾,当时我所李平心还写文章批评她过虑了,认为贫富差距还可以再大些。北大厉以宁也同意这个观点。现在到底谁对谁错还在其次,关键是政府为什么只能听进这些人的话,听不进何先生的话?如今何先生的建议非常正确,但要政府自断经脉,做得到吗?
      我终于明白政府为什么要压制何先生的言论了,这是为了保住政府的利益。

    5. May 21, 2011 at 19:25

      This post is very usefull thx!

    6. June 19, 2011 at 10:20

      Thank God! Someone with birans speaks!

    7. July 29, 2011 at 04:51

      I must admit that this is one great insight. It surely gives a company the opportunity to get in on the ground floor and really take part in creating something special and tailored to their needs.

    8. July 29, 2011 at 08:08

      great post. Ne’er knew this, regards for letting me know.

    9. July 29, 2011 at 12:35

      You should take part in a contest for probably the greatest blogs on the web. I will suggest this site!

    10. August 3, 2011 at 02:23

      WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..more wait .. …

    11. August 3, 2011 at 08:38

      Useful info. Lucky me I found your website accidentally, and I am shocked why this twist of fate did not took place earlier! I bookmarked it.

    12. August 3, 2011 at 14:29

      I was very pleased to find this site.I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.

    13. August 7, 2011 at 16:51

      I have beeing looking the Internet for this information and just wanted to thank u for this post. By the way, just off topic, where can i get a version of this theme? – Regards

    14. September 11, 2011 at 22:32

      Can I make a suggestion? I believe youve obtained something good here. But what should you added a pair links to a page that backs up what youre saying? Or possibly you could give us one thing to look at, one thing that may connect what youre saying to one thing tangible? Only a suggestion. Anyway, in my language, there aren’t much good source like this.

    15. September 12, 2011 at 03:41

      *Your place is valueble for me. Thanks!…

    16. October 28, 2011 at 14:12

      Keep up the good piece of work, I read few content on this website and I believe that your blog is rattling interesting and has got circles of excellent information.

    17. December 19, 2011 at 07:40

      Fantastic blog found it really insightful and truthful

    18. Pingback: 民富国安之梦何时圆? | 清涟居

    19. July 1, 2012 at 14:40

      As usual you did an great job evaluating the problem and finding the right answer. I will stay tuned for more releases on your site.

    20. July 23, 2012 at 12:58

      This is interesting information. Thanks for this great topic.

    21. October 8, 2012 at 09:45

      One word “informative”, you broke down exactly what I have been searching for. Looking forward to seeing more in the future.

    22. October 22, 2012 at 20:21

      It is not enough just to come up with an important point these weeks. You need to do hard work in to exciting the idea accordingly as well as making certain all of the plan is understood.

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *