• 埃及政治局势的“场景想定”

    by  • January 31, 2011 • 世界与中国 • 162 Comments

    这几天非洲地区的局势波云诡谲,但前景已隐然若现。只是这前景与国际围观者期望的可能不太相同。在此不妨来一个“场景想定”(Scenario,战略学用语)。

    突尼斯局势现在已基本稳定,总理加努希在同所有政党和民间组织举行会谈后决定了新政府的阵容,他向世界宣布这个过渡性的临时政府只负责完成领导国家迈向民主的任务,在半年后完成选举并移交权力,届时他将退出政坛。突尼斯“复兴运动”的领袖冈努基在流亡国外22年后已于30日返回突尼斯。据研究伊斯兰运动的专家说,“复兴运动”的意识形态比埃及的穆斯林兄弟会要温和一些。对于突尼斯的各种政治力量来说,今后这半年就是他们集结力量、争取选民支持以获取执政权的关键时刻。

    但埃及的情况却远比突尼斯混乱复杂。执政长达30年的总统穆巴拉克比本•阿里似乎更老练,他的一些举措使自己避免了在几天之内倒台。目前在埃及政治舞台上现身的政治力量有几种:

    一是现任总统穆巴拉克。他的目的显然是想以有限的让步继续保留执政权力。比如他承诺要进行民主改革,但同时却竭力拉拢军方,让两位来自军方的人物担任副总统和总理,并把军队部署在街头,让战斗机在首都开罗市中心广场上空盘旋以示威慑。他还和军方最高指挥官一起出现在国家电视台的节目当中。所有这些发出的信号意在表示:他目前仍然掌权,仍然得到军方支持。

    二是正在街头政治中扮演主角、似隐似现的一些政治力量。据说组织此次示威抗议的约有20个近五年内冒出来的组织,其主体都是年轻人。这些组织富有组织能力,善于利用互联网和手机等新型传播手段。过去被允许合法存在的政党目前似乎在观望,以至于有一段时期传穆巴拉克找不到谈判对手。目前,已经公开站出来的反对组织有穆斯林兄弟会与刚从国外返回埃及的诺贝尔和平奖得主巴拉迪。巴拉迪曾任联合国国际原子能机构总干事,但在本国并无组织根基,西方社会在他返国之初曾认为他可能得不到多少支持。但1月30日,穆斯林兄弟会却宣布支持巴拉迪出面与当局展开谈判。这意味着巴拉迪与兄弟会暂时结成了政治同盟。不同的力量于是开始正式结合。激进的伊斯兰群众运动和其他力量新组成的反对派联盟请求巴拉迪组建全国团结政府,并与埃及军队接触。

    据研究者介绍,埃及穆斯林兄弟会是活跃于埃及、阿拉伯和伊斯兰世界的一个影响最为广泛的原教旨主义派别组织,它成立于1928年,创始人为苏非派虔诚信徒哈桑•班纳。这是一个集宗教、政治于一体的社会组织,自成立以来,曾在埃及历史上产生过重大影响。它与埃及历届政府的关系时好时坏,甚至几度被解散。在当今埃及,兄弟会因倡导伊斯兰复兴,拥有很强的经济实力和广泛的社会基础,是埃及最强有力的反对派。与其他伊斯兰原教旨主义组织和政权一样,兄弟会把国家伊斯兰化和宗教纯洁化作为人类全部生活的终极目标,反对伊斯兰教世俗化,反对西方文化。据研究者介绍,穆斯林兄弟会由于受原教旨主义的束缚,至今未能提出一个较为完备、行之有效的政治、经济和社会纲领。(注1)不过,在此轮革命中,为了争取本国世俗化的反抗者与西方世界的支持,这些伊斯兰政党已经策略地调整位置。

    三是目前手握最大政治砝码的埃及军方,军队领袖现在是双方都要争取的重要合作者。由于资料缺乏,很难对军方实权人物的政治偏好作何猜想,但看得见的是埃及军方并非突尼斯军方。目前埃及军方的态度似在两可之间:既不积极阻止抗议者的行动,也未对穆巴拉克的呼唤完全不理,而是有限度地配合。我猜想,军方目前在观望,对以下几点的判断将决定他们的动向:一是穆氏的维稳能力;二是反对派能否成气候。三是通过与美国的外交管道获得的信息。军方如何行动将成为决定未来埃及政治的关键。现在唯一可以预测的是,“鹬蚌相争,渔翁得利”,埃及军方将是此次埃及革命的最大受益者,军方领袖正在盘算如何行动才能让自己获得最大利益。

    美、英、德、法对埃及的态度一致。国务卿希拉里•克林顿表态,美国希望埃及各方保持克制,不希望看到埃及安全部队采取暴力手段;民主、人权、经济改革符合埃及人民的利益。希望权力交接能给埃及带来一个民主政府。英德法等也相继做了同样的表达。有伊朗的经验在前,我相信西方世界不希望看到伊斯兰原教旨主义在埃及成为举足轻重的政治力量。

    专制分为开明专制与黑暗专制两种。突尼斯的本•阿里是开明专制者,因此反对派有一定活动空间;黑暗专制下,反对派并无反对空间,只剩下冷嘲以自我解脱。历史经验告诉人们,反对独裁的人可以分为两大类,一是真正要求民主的人士,二是希望用民主口号消灭别人的独裁并取而代之、建立自己的独裁的人(中共即一例)。埃及革命此刻正处在三岔路口:民主、军政府与第二个伊朗,而且三种可能甚至不是一战定乾坤,要经历一个反复博奕的过程。
    (详情参见姜英梅: “埃及穆斯林兄弟会与政府的关系及其影响”)。

    (原载于何清涟VOA博客,2011年1月31日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/01/politics-egypt/)

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    162 Responses to 埃及政治局势的“场景想定”

    1. good writing !
      January 31, 2011 at 14:09

      I like your writing, you should be employed as white house Chinese expert. Because you will be much better than 李侃如.

      • He Qinglian
        February 1, 2011 at 11:37

        谢谢你对我观察力的信任。不过,位置不对。我只是个中国的流亡者,这点决定了我最好的选择只能是做个独立的观察者。
        欢迎常来。

    2. Pingback: Tweets that mention 埃及政治局势的“场景想定” | 何清涟美国之音中文博客 -- Topsy.com

    3. AAA
      January 31, 2011 at 16:28

      埃及, 一个长期受到美国军事援助援助金额仅次于以色列的独裁国家. 很有可能成为“第二个伊朗”的国家, 令老美头疼. 呵呵…

      • 每事问
        February 1, 2011 at 07:12

        埃及变成第二个伊朗的假设是埃及人民千辛万苦推翻前一个独裁者就是为了迎接一个更独裁的独裁者(霍梅尼等),够贱的。

        • AAA
          February 1, 2011 at 10:17

          美国人就是这个德性. 去了解一下6,70年代的伊朗吧, 当时的政府巴列維王朝可是美国中央情报局一手扶持的, 还把宗教领袖霍梅尼強行驱逐出境. 这可都是美国人干的好事, 我想美国人记性应该不会那么差的吧, 哈哈…

          • February 2, 2011 at 17:49

            AAA. CCC千万不要着急!咱们不妨一起来先把戏看完。(包括俄罗斯在内)现在谁也别在这里过瘾。当这出戏演完时,谁不在这儿谁是孙子!

    4. 中共
      January 31, 2011 at 16:59

      你总是骂中国。
      很不好

      • February 2, 2011 at 17:39

        孙子,真正热爱中国的人,就必须加入反共的行列。爱他,就应该盼望他学好!爱中国与爱中国共产党是两回事知道吗?孙子!

        • 气愤
          February 11, 2011 at 07:58

          你不要把博客玷污了,总是骂人那。他要是孙子,也是中国人民的孙子,那么你就是美国人的孙子。口口声声要民主,他不是民,你不是民,还是我不是民。愿意说就说几句,不愿意说,就闭嘴。这样骂人,两方都看不上你。

    5. paul
      January 31, 2011 at 20:05

      何老师的文章很值得读,中国受长期专制的影响,像您这样的人道而理性的声音凤毛麟角,还经常被打压,可悲!看来埃及的民主之路荆棘满布啊。近代埃及历史上也几乎都是军人政府,像纳赛尔、萨达特和穆巴拉克都是军人出身。继续由军人执政看来还是各方都能接受的局面,如果埃及不幸被穆斯林兄弟会控制,实在对欧美以及世界都不是个好消息。原教旨主义政权的残酷堪比共产党政权。衷心希望埃及实现真正的民主,但目前的形势看来,不是很乐观啊。

      • He Qinglian
        February 1, 2011 at 11:38

        这是那小兵的一篇博文,比较清醒,可观之。http://tinyurl.com/6gvwor8

    6. ccc
      January 31, 2011 at 20:52

      呵呵、、、、、、
      又一个中东国家亲美政权的垮台,给基地和伊斯兰教组织以更大的机会。害怕的不是中共这个所谓的独裁政权,而是西方一直扶持的以色列和当地的权贵。威胁到全世界的还有那条石油的动脉–苏伊士运河的安全和贯通。这些挑战比起挑动中国内乱来的迅猛而又现实。
      突然发现这么多的北非、中东国家都是美国庇护下的独裁国家。美国民主的内裤又一次撤下!哈哈、、、、、、

      • February 2, 2011 at 17:29

        杂种请不要笑的太早了1

    7. 北京愤怒的羔羊
      January 31, 2011 at 22:54

      中国的民运动还要有一个过程,一个冤民发声阶段,民众相互联系表达的过程。你以为如何?

    8. SKY
      January 31, 2011 at 23:41

      从埃及骚乱事件来看, 美国人对于民主其实很虚伪的, 从对同样是独裁国家态度完全两样. 要说民主程度伊郎绝对要比埃及要高的多. 不过美国政府可不管这一点.

    9. myrepression
      February 1, 2011 at 00:02

      穆巴拉克决不能把政权交给穆斯林兄弟会,但应进行政改。

    10. 中国大同党
      February 1, 2011 at 00:51

      “民主”谰言
      难以担负

    11. February 1, 2011 at 02:52

      何清漣氏@HeQinglian: エジプト政局のシナリオ(100131)日本語訳

      ①ここ数日のアフリカの情勢は変転きわまりないが、行き先は不透明。この見通しと、予想されるシナリオを書いてみた。

      ②チュニスは既に穏やかだ。ガンヌーシ首相は全政党と民間組織と会談を行い新政府の陣容を決定。世界にこの臨時政府は国が民主へ向かう任務だけを負い、半年後に選挙で権力移行へ、と。其の時自分は政治の舞台から退くとのべた。

      ③チュニス復興運動の指導者ガヌージーは22年の亡命から30日帰国。イスラムの専門家は「復興運動のイデオロギーはエジプトのムスリム同胞団より穏健。この半年に力結集すれば、選挙民の支持と政権獲得の大事な時」と。

      ④だがエジプトの状勢は遥かにチュニジアを超えて複雑。30年政権にあったムバラク大統領はベンアリに比べて老獪。数日内の退陣を免れるために様々な措置をとっている。目下同国の政治舞台ではいくつかの政治力が現出。

      ⑤その第一は、現在のムバラク。目的はある程度譲歩して引きき権力を持とうと。民主改革を約束したが、同時に軍をひきつけるため軍部から副総統と総理を選び、軍隊を街の要所に配備。

      ⑥戦闘機をカイロの中心広場上空を旋回させ威嚇。また軍の最高司令官と一緒に国営テレビに出演。これらのシグナルの意味は、「いまだにオレは権力を保ち、軍も支持しているんだ」ということ。

      ⑦その第二は現在街頭政治の主役を演じている、見え隠れする政治パワー。今回のデモを組織したのはこの5年ぐらいにできた20近くの若い人々による組織だといわれている。組織能力に富みネットやケータイなど新しい伝達手段にたけている。

      ⑧でこれまでに許可されていた政治勢力は模様眺めでムバラクは当初、対話の相手をみつけるのに困った。すでに表にでてきた組織にはムスリム同胞団や帰国したノーベル賞受賞者のエルバラディがいる。

      ⑨彼はIATAのトップだったが本国には組織を持たず西側も当初、支持は得られないとみていた。しかし30日、ムスリム同胞団が支持し当局と談判開始。これはバラディと同胞団が政治同盟を結んだという意味。

      ⑩異なる政治力が正式に結合した。過激な群衆運動と他の力が新たに反対派をつくりバラディに挙国一致政府を求め、軍部とも接触。

      ⑪研究者によればムスリム同胞団はエジプト、アラブ世界、イスラム世界で最も広範な影響力を持つ原理主義の別組織で、1928年に成立。創始者はサファビー派のハサン・バンナ。宗教・政治一体の社会組織でエジプトの歴史に重大な影響を与えてきた。

      ⑫政府との関係は時に良く、時には解散を命じられた。今、エジプトではイスラムの復興を訴え、強い経済的実力と社会的基盤を持つ最強の反対派。特にイスラム原理主義政権同様、国家のイスラム化と宗教の浄化を全世界にというのが終局目標。

      ⑬イスラムの世俗化に反対し、西側文化に反対。研究者に依れば同胞団は宗教の拘束により、今日まで友好な政治・社会・経済の綱領をうちだせないでいる。(原注1)

      ⒁しかし、今回の革命の中で世俗的反抗者と西側世界の支持をとりつけるために、これらのイスラム政党はすでに立ち位置を戦略的に調整したようだ。

      ⑮3つ目は目下最大の切り札を握るエジプト軍部。軍隊の指導者は目下、双方が取り込みをはかる重要な合作の相手。資料がないので軍部の実験を握る人物の思想政治傾向など推測するしか無いが、チュニスの様な軍部ではないようだ。

      ⑯現在軍部の態度は中間的で、デモを積極的に阻止はしないが、ムバラクの呼びかけに完全に背をむけたわけでもなく、ある程度は答えている。

      ⑰軍の帰趨を決めるのはこんな点ではないか?ムバラクの安定化能力。反対派の盛り上がり。米国との外交パイプからの情報。軍部がどう出るか、はエジプトの未来と政治の鍵である。

      ⑱現在唯一可能なよそくは、”シギとハマグリが争っているのを利用して、漁夫の利”だ。軍部はこの革命の最大の受益者。軍部の指導者は現在、その利益を最大にする方法を計算しているだろう。

      ⑲英、仏、独の態度は一致。ヒラリー長官が米国は双方が自制し、暴力的手段をとらぬことを希望。民主人権、経済改革がエジプトの利益に合致する、と。権力移管で民主政府ができることを望むと。英仏らも同意。

      ⑳イランの経験を前に、西側もイスラム原理主義が決定的な力を持つ事は望まないと見る。

      (21)専制には開明的専制と暗い専制があり、反対派も一定の活動空間を持つベンアリは開明派だった。反対する空間がない暗黒独裁では、ただ*自ら解脱したとでもいって冷笑するしかない。(所謂「私に敵無し論」への批判(・・?))

      (22)歴史の経験は教える。独裁反対者には真に民主を望むものと、民主のスローガンを借りて独裁者に自分が取って代わろうとする勢力(中共がその例だ)。

      (23)エジプト革命は現在、3叉路にいる。民主、軍、第二のイラン。そしてこの3者は一度の戦いで決着がつかず、何度もゲームをけなければ成らないだろう。(注1は “埃及穆斯林兄弟会与政府的关系及其影响”を)

    12. 江左处士
      February 1, 2011 at 07:37

      美国奥巴马政府在目前埃及局势上的对策应汲取当年卡特总统对伊朗伊斯兰革命错误对策的教训

      美国之音2011年1月31日报道:Obama:Egypt needs orderly transition.
      U.S.president Barack Obama on Sunday called for an orderly transition in Egypt to a government that reflects the aspirations of the Egypt people.

      1:从地缘政治的层面来看,美国及诸西方列强应支持穆巴拉克,即使权利转移过渡亦应在目前埃及世俗的政府内发生,而决不能转移过渡给穆斯林兄弟会。如果埃及伊斯兰原教旨主义化,阿拉伯世界诸国将发生多米诺骨牌效应,很可能出现一个又一个伊朗式的狂热的伊斯兰原教旨主义国家,埃及将由美国及西方诸列强的盟友变为劲敌,中东整个地缘政治将为之改观。以色列将北抗伊朗支持的真主党,南拒埃及援助的哈马斯。以色列必不善罢甘休,坐以待毙,很可能爆发第五次中东战争。美国奥巴马政府在目前埃及局势上的对策应汲取当年卡特总统对伊朗伊斯兰革命错误对策的教训,决不能抛弃目前的埃及世俗政府,就像当年抛弃伊朗巴列维国王一样,形势演变的逻辑就是一个神权国家的出现。如果美国不审时度势,再次这样做,那么,二十世纪七十年代末伊朗伊斯兰革命的历史将会在埃及重演。

      2:从意识形态的层面来看,当年卡特政府之所以在伊朗问题上铸下大错,就是没有摆正地缘政治和意识形态之间的关系。当年巴列维国王实行的专制统治及“白色革命”所造成的贪污腐化贫富不均,和今日埃及政府并无二致。霍梅尼及其追随者趁机煽惑造反,要求国王下台,过程手段亦和今日埃及民众要求穆巴拉克下台大致相同。今日美国总统奥巴马对埃及的看法和对策亦和当年卡特总统对伊朗的一样,二人皆以为这是促进专制国家民主化的历史时机。结果卡特政府替美国制造了一个三十多年的劲敌,扰乱改变了美国的世界战略格局。这次,若奥巴马举措失当,对埃及实行德国总理默克尔所谓的“利益外交必须以价值为导向”(2008年9月19日在阿登纳基金会年会上的演说)的对策,也很可能步卡特之后尘。所谓地缘政治和意识形态的关系,有两层含义:一为地缘政治和意识形态在一定时间条件下孰为重?一为美国褒扬赞行的民主人权意识形态是否适合某一地缘政治?如何审时度势恰到好处地处理地缘政治和意识形态———即民主、人权———之间的关系,是美国自卡特总统以来历届总统都要面临权衡的问题。质而言之,以伊斯兰教义为绝对意识形态的中东诸国以及伊朗,在国家统治思想的层面上,目前并不适合美国及西方诸列强褒扬赞行的意识形态,实行之尚待时日。历史的文明产儿必须足月成熟,绝不可以以任何手段尤其是暴力催生。否则,必定是畸形或残疾的。因此,美国对目前埃及局势的对策,应以地缘政治为优先,以意识形态为次。

      3:美国之音2011年1月31日报道,奥巴马总统呼吁埃及有次序地过渡到一个反映人民愿望的政府。这意味着美国已抛弃了埃及总统穆巴拉克。民主党的杜鲁门总统在二十世纪四十年代末失去了中国。三十年后,民主党的卡特政府在一九七九年失去了伊朗。屈指三十二年又过去了,历史的机遇和挑战又一次降临美国,民主党的奥巴马政府会再次失去埃及吗?我们拭目以待。

      2011.2.1

      • He Qinglian
        February 2, 2011 at 12:14

        从目前情况看,奥巴马处理得比卡特要好些,至少没有立即放弃,而是有所作为。军方动向是关键,埃及军方与美国关系很密切。从策略考虑,可能军方还想等双方再对峙一段,直至精疲力尽,接受第三方出来维持局面直至9月大选。届时就看世俗政治势力与原教旨主义的政治较量了。
        这应该符合国际秩序的利益。只是觉得兄弟会不会就此罢休,这个组织需要一段权力真空。这就是穆氏答应不连任,未答应立即下台,示威者还不撤的原因。

      • He Qinglian
        February 2, 2011 at 17:06

        江左处士:有你这种高水平的人回应。很荣幸。
        我今天写了一篇“中国人应从埃及革命中学到什么”,欢迎批评指教。群众本身的民主诉求其实比较空泛,只有组织才能将这种空泛的要求化为具体的政治诉求并实现之。中东地区的伊斯兰政治运动有各种组织,但其奉行的原教旨主义与民主自由均无缘。这是当年东欧与苏联没有的问题,也是西方世界欢呼苏东反独裁、支持其人民追求自由的原因。中国人不理解,许多人只看重广场狂欢。不了解如果世俗政府倒台,原教旨主义团体通过“民主”形式上台后对世界的影响。
        你不妨也写些文章谈谈这个问题。最有意思的是卡特前总统没闲着,要求穆氏立即下台。看来他对自己造成的伊朗问题并无反省。

      • myrepression
        February 2, 2011 at 20:20

        江左处士真高人也!奥巴马政府需当机立断!对穆斯林兄弟会不可姑息养奸、养虎为患!

    13. schwinn
      February 1, 2011 at 13:49

      AAA 到处招摇撞骗, 总有一天把这家伙揪出来.

    14. 考尔
      February 1, 2011 at 15:05

      像AAA的那种幸灾乐祸的表现重复得很厉害,结论一般都是犬儒主义者的冷笑。上街示威的埃及民众并不想当伊朗第二。

    15. February 1, 2011 at 21:06

      何清涟女士,您是中国的索仁尼辛娜,萨哈罗夫斯卡娅!!中国第二才女!(千万不要当第一!第一会被共匪割喉或轧死!)仁慈的天主一定会保佑善良智慧的女人!

      • He Qinglian
        February 2, 2011 at 19:56

        我会将你的话当作鼓励与努力目标。只是中国古语说得好,文无第一,武无第二。撰文之人,可能有时候有些文章比别人好些,但永远不可能每篇都精彩,也不可能事事都比别人看得远。只是希望自己的思想锋芒褪尽之时来得迟一点而已。欢迎常来,勿忘赐教。

    16. February 2, 2011 at 01:52

      读何老师的文章,受益匪浅。

    17. February 2, 2011 at 02:21

      几天来,突尼斯 也门 埃及 约旦等几个北非国家接连掀起声势浩大的反专制政府的示威游行。这时我想起了鲁迅先生的一段话;”假如一间铁屋子,是绝无窗户而万难破毁的,里面有许多熟睡的人们,不久都要闷死了,然而是从昏睡入死灭,并不感到就死的悲哀。现在你大嚷起来,惊起了较为清醒的几个人,使这不幸的少数者来受无可挽救的临终的苦楚,你倒以为对得起他们么?“然而几个人既然起来,你不能说决没有毁坏这铁屋的希望。”

    18. 中国人奴性太强
      February 2, 2011 at 18:30

      对比下89六四天安门和这次埃及突尼斯事件就可以得出这样结论:

      中国人爱内斗不团结。

      中国人奴性强,为了保命可以放弃做人的尊严和权利,可以放弃人性(文革),向黑暗屈服,向专制屈服,没有人格。

      而这些劣根性是从明朝灭亡之后,满清用暴力给中国人剃发易服开始的,有骨气和气节的中国人已经在明末那场浩劫中死掉了,剩下的都是中国奴的后代。

      中国是个没有希望的国家和民族,虽然经济取得成就,但也仅此而已了。

      我觉得那些六四民运人士和海外流亡民主人士真不值得为这样一个国家和民族而努力,因为中国人自己都不争取民主和自由,也不想争取做人的权利和尊严,只会逆来顺受,并且他们甘愿在共产专制体制下扭曲他们的人性和人格,一切都是中国人自己的选择,中国人选择专制,中国人要为自己的选择和不反抗承担一切后果,包括国家命运和民族存亡。

    19. bonney
      February 2, 2011 at 22:09

      一个时刻强调自己所谓流亡身份的人,还能够做到独立观察吗?!如果说十余年前你的言论受到限制,今天你已经失去了听到自己声音的能力.

    20. 观察
      February 3, 2011 at 04:16

      自然科学现象——人类的原始进化与自然界没有变化的%二、八分率
      有人说:人类的进化从6500万年开始,从猿王头领、族群头领、氏族头领、到几千万年进化形成国家的今天,有一个现象始终没有变化——“寄生者”就是人类文明界定的“走狗”概念,从猿群的社会结构现象,强壮的猿王占有所有的雌性和食物,另一个现象就是拍马屁的一种猿也可以获得食物和性伴,这个现象一直延续到今天,,自然界美丽的东西约占一成,丑陋的约占一成,最好吃的东西约占一成,不好吃的约占一成,今天精英人比率大约占一成“寄生者走狗”约占一成,其他东西约八成属于平庸,希特勒、斯大林、毛泽东都是杀人魔王,但是它们都没有亲手杀过一个人,都是走狗所为,一个受蒙蔽的帮凶明白了“正义”可以悔过变成好人,可是一个原始现象的“寄生者走狗”永远也变不成好人,既然能来美国之音的中共走狗,就能了解世界,了解中共从始到今的恶贯满盈,这些天生的“寄生者走狗” 熟视无睹,为虎作伥,没有人的良知,没有人性,没有道德…………。

      • 安定才是国家发展之本
        February 4, 2011 at 22:51

        你说的很对,人类的发展就是这样的。你也是人类,你也脱离不开这个规律。现在你不就是美国式人权主义的走狗吗!
        加入美国国籍吧,享受美国的人权吧,不过到老临终时,不要流泪,是你自己选择放弃祖国的。

    21. 淡如水
      February 3, 2011 at 04:36

      何女士与江左处士的文章真有独到之处,看完发人深省。但是将历史上几届政权更迭的错误归结为美国民主党的错误的观点,不敢苟同。
      对当前埃及局势,我只能以“进步”二字概括之,至于以后的进程是倒退或是继续进步只能拭目以待,期盼埃及人好运。
      除民主、军政府与第二个伊朗三种结果外,最坏的还是穆巴拉克继续执政(犹如现在的中国),都是埃及人民必须面对的现实,不能归咎于美国人。
      杜鲁门总统在二十世纪四十年代末失去了中国,事实确实如此,但在当时有几人能看清毛泽东和共产党的本质,二位若早生若干年,恐怕也是众多热血青年中的佼佼者。对比老蒋的独裁和老毛的“民主”及民心,你是杜鲁门咋办?老蒋不是终身实行独裁么(若非有个经国先生,怕么中国人至今还无人在本土享受民主)?毛与共是国人自己选的,个中滋味须得国人自己消化总结。本人愚钝,直到老毛晚年才领悟自己受骗上当半辈子,可怜同辈人中至今尚有人对他顶礼膜拜,国人对毛与共的认知,由崇拜到服从,由质疑到抛弃,有一个过程,要付出代价,只是这个代价过大,大得令人心悸。
      卡特政府在一九七九年失去了伊朗,我没有研究过,但我估计同四十年代末的中国的情形差不多,既然旧政府已经烂得不行,还救它干什么,新政府也许不行,可能也坏不到那里去,而且重要的是你的国人有这个诉求,有这个愿望,横加干涉就是不尊重人权了!不用管伊朗政府与美国政府现在的对抗,只问问伊朗人民现在过得怎样?有什么样的诉求?有没有民主自由?一个人民不满意政府,如果不思进取改革,不管用什么高压,什么骗术,终将被人民推翻。
      卡特前总统没闲着,要求穆氏立即下台,说明他认为自己在伊朗的问题上没有错。我也如此认为,只要他现在是清醒的。

    22. 北京愤怒的羔羊
      February 3, 2011 at 14:05

      清莲你总是只当观察员是不够的,多想点办法来讨论国内应当如何?

    23. 霜天孤鸿
      February 4, 2011 at 03:57

      想在中国搞颜色革命?汉奸们就不要做你们的春秋大梦了。中国眼下日新月异,经济、科技及国防实直追美国,民生也在大幅度改善,民主也在稳步推进。在第三世界,中国的发展和治理比美国大力扶持和吹捧的任何民主样板都要成功。除非是脑残,否则谁也不会听信汉奸及国际反华势力的煽动。世界上本来就没有什么“普世价值”,如果有,美国及西方列强也从来没有真正尊重过它。叶利钦当年用大炮轰击俄罗斯议会大楼,这算不算违反“普世价值”?可西方国家却为此大声叫好呢。普京拯救了俄罗斯,受到了他的祖国人民的普遍拥护和爱戴,但美国及西方列强却对他恨之入骨。伊朗总统内贾德是民选的吧,但美国却欲置之死地而后快。哈马斯是民选的吧,但却被美国宣布为恐怖组织。沙特和科威特实行的是世袭制吧,但却被美国视为盟友。由此可见,所谓普世价值”,只不过是西方干扰别国内政的工具而已!

    24. ggg
      February 4, 2011 at 07:58

      很多人看着埃及,突尼斯心里却想着自己的祖国
      我从没想过民主、自由,人权,反腐败,反独裁,反抗压迫和“茉莉花”会有什么联系,然而,今天“茉莉花”就是以上这些的象征。我猜不到埃及的示威抗议和局势发展结果会是怎样的,但是我注意到,埃及军队向全世界承诺不会屠杀示威者,这是值得世人尊重的。我注意到,统治者已经宣布不再连任,这就是胜利。我注意到,统治者的所谓支持者向示威者施暴,但是,我想这是统治者结束自己前最后的绝望挣扎。埃及局势在有些地方被媒体淡化处理了,我觉得这是正常的,因为媒体是“枪”,谁会把自己手中的“枪”对准自己呢?突尼斯、埃及、约旦、也门的变革是自下而上实现了变革,但是,世界有些地方的人们没有这种福气,正如有的火山会爆发,有的火山不会再爆发了。这些地方的人们可期的是,如戈尔巴乔夫、如叶利钦这样的,自上而下的变革,因为这样的变革流血少,比较平和。因为,这些地方的人,相互间的爱很少,压迫却很多,就像干涸的土地,没有一滴水了,只能求上苍的甘露。

    25. 埃及政治局势对中国没有任何影响
      February 4, 2011 at 08:26

      大家应该认识到,中国一直在高速发展,人民逐步走向富足,民生在向好的方向发展。老百姓看的是,生活是不是越来越好。中国的社会主义,将在中华民族的土地上,完善成功,得到很好的验证。
      希望那些人不认可共产党领导中国的人,不要为了自己的主义,做出伤害中国人民的事。

    26. 白丁
      February 4, 2011 at 11:44

      从到今天为止的事态发展看:1)埃及出现伊朗式的伊斯兰原教旨主义的神权统治,是不大可能了。何女士高估了伊斯兰兄弟会的影响(一专家说只有15~30%的埃及人受伊斯兰兄弟会的影响),或者说低估了穆巴拉克30年世俗统治对埃及人精神文化的渗透。2)出现军政府的可能也大大降低。埃及人的抗议并不带有反美色彩,美国人的影响力还在,军队就不会失控。3)不管接下来是真正的民主政府还是更开明的专制政府,美国倡导的中东和平进程和反恐努力,都没有受到太大的影响。这一点使中共拥护者们大失所望了。

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