• 为抑制通胀中国释放外汇储备压力

    by  • April 26, 2011 • 世界与中国 • 46 Comments

    从去年开始,中国国内对通胀成因的评述日益集中到政府不太愿意承认的一个“点”上,即政府发行货币过多,仅2010年前三季度就超发43万亿元。

    持此论者其中就有中国的金融官员。全国人大财经委副主任、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院院长吴晓灵直言:“过去30年,我们是以超量的货币供给推动了经济的快速发展。”根据官方数据,2009年,中国GDP总量为33.5万亿元,广义货币供应量为60.6万亿元,是GDP的1.8倍,多出了27.1万亿元。中央政府承认这一事实是通过总理温家宝的两次讲话——从今年两会期间要“消除房价物价上涨的货币基础”,到4月13日温相在国务院常务会议上强调“消除通货膨胀的货币因素”,正式承认发行货币过多。

    应该说中国政府很清楚地知道通货膨胀会动摇经济基础、民心,一想到半个世纪之前国共内战的关键时刻,中共通过经济学家冀朝鼎(中共党员、派到国民党政府的“卧底”)向宋子文提出发行金元券的建议,搞垮了国民政府的金融体系这一历史经验,中共可不敢继续玩通胀这把火。因此将控制通胀当作今年头号大事来抓,甚至放在比调整经济结构更优先的位置上。问题是,通货膨胀这只老虎一旦放出笼,还能再将它关进笼子里吗?

    释放外汇储备压力当然是办法之一。今年4月初,中国外汇储备已经突破30,447亿美元,这对中国来说不仅不是一件值得庆幸的事情,相反还是包袱。因为按照中国的外汇制度,外储每增加一元钱,央行就得相应地发行约6.5元左右的人民币。外汇储备越多,央行在国内注入的货币越多,造成通胀持续上涨。所以,中国正在想办法释放庞大的外汇储备压力。除了继续采取“藏汇于民”的方式分散风险之外(即境内个人年度购、结汇额度由2万美元提高到5万美元);还采取了一些新的办法:

    一是鼓励中国资本到境外投资并放宽限制。就在今年3月14日,国家发改委宣布将公布新的《海外投资条例》,从本月起对资源类境外投资重大项目需要审批的金额起点从3,000万美元提升到3亿美元,非资源类境外投资重大项目需要审批的金额起点从1,000万美元提升到1亿美元。央企限额以下均适用备案制,不需要经过审批。这一新规定使国家发改委的核准权限从金额上放宽了十倍。

    二是大量购买欧元债券,中国已表示将购买40亿至50亿欧元的葡萄牙国债,中国还表示将分摊国际货币基金组织(IMF)拯救欧元危机应对基金总额2,500亿欧元中的155亿欧元。此外,中国还大量提升对欧洲部分国家的投资,目前投资的项目主要有:希腊港口、塞尔维亚桥梁、波兰高速公路、罗马尼亚能源网络以及葡萄牙海运公司。

    但通过这些办法释放出去的外汇储备压力毕竟有限,尤其是第二种方式还得考虑欧洲的态度。由于中国增持欧元区国家国债以及在欧洲投资的快速增长,已经引起欧洲部分人士对中国经济实力强大之后的担忧,“中国威胁论”冒出苗头。再投往美国国债,则是中美两国都不希望看到的情况,截至今年1月底,中国的美债持有量为1.15万亿美元,外界称中国为美国的第一大债主。这种状况无论是美国还是中国都很不放心。对于美国来说,总有点担心这种债务关系可能构成种种牵制,尽管后来有文章称中国并非美国第一债主,因为中国的持有美国债务在其中所占的比例不到10%,美国的负债多半都是国内的债务(见“美国的大债主真是中国吗?”《华尔街日报》2011年4月15日)。但美国似乎也不希望中国多购国债了;对于中国来说,也不想将鸡蛋全放在美元这只篮子里,它希望分散风险。

    上述数种方法消化掉的外汇储备并不能达到令中国完全减轻通胀压力的程度。不少专业人士测算,认为中国只需要约7,800亿美元的储备,能够支付三个月的进口并支付中国所有的短期外债即足够。这个标准通常是一个国家需要持有多少储备以防备金融危机的标准尺度,中国现在的外汇储备拥有量远远超过这一标准。

    这种释放能从根本上解决中国外汇储备过于庞大带来的困扰吗?答案是否定的,因为中国现有的人民币汇率机制与贸易收入将促使外汇储备持续攀升。如果改革汇率机制,让人民币升值,中国的对外出口将受到很大影响,而出口又被认为是中国的经济支柱。更何况这个重大决策将受到中国国内各利益集团的影响,并非央行这一机构就能够决定。

     

    (原载美国之音何清涟博客,2011年4月26日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/04/inflation-china-foreign-savings/)

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    46 Responses to 为抑制通胀中国释放外汇储备压力

    1. 白丁
      April 26, 2011 at 18:34

      请教何女士几个问题:

      1)中国的外汇储备似乎并非都是来自贸易盈余,外商投资企业带进来的资金和到中国炒房炒汇炒股的“热钱”,是否也汇入这个蓄水池?

      2)中国有多少外币资产可供外商投资?

      3)开放资本项目货币自由兑换,是否有助于减少外汇储备?

      4)如果提高汇率可以减少人民币的投放,减轻通胀压力;那么反过来说,目前中国的高通胀是否有助于中国维持现行汇率,甚至降低汇率(因为人民币的实际购买力在下降)?

      多谢。

      • heqinglian
        April 27, 2011 at 10:29

        所问谨答如下:
        1、 热钱确实是这个蓄水池的一部分,只是名义上肯定是用投资之类的。绕过了中国的管制规则。
        2、所问不知何意。
        3、我文中已经谈到这点,这叫藏汇于民。
        4、坚持人民币盯住美元的汇率,是出于对外出口需要。下篇博文涉及此,烦你读读那篇文章。
        欢迎常来。

        • 白丁
          April 28, 2011 at 17:30

          我的第2个问题是指中国有没有(比如说)用美元标价的国库券,企业债券等金融资产,可让国外投资者购买。我想,这样吸收的资金,就不用按现行汇率投放等量的人民币,因此不会加剧国内通胀。

    2. pupil
      April 26, 2011 at 21:40

      如果货币供应量是GDP的1.8倍,那创造1块钱价值,共产党通过印钞票把它稀释到1.8块,共产党就能留0.8块(44%)去兑外汇。这种宏观的货币政策就是赤裸裸地掠夺民脂民膏。印了钞票中共四处摆阔高兴,带来的通胀底层的民众去抗。

      可笑的是中共的媒体,把温家宝的货币泛滥政策栽赃到美国身上。还说中国的货币贬值是主权问题,不受外国压力。于是一堆五毛人云亦云,为自己手头货币贬值而叫起好来,真是一帮倒霉催的。

    3. 中共牌坊
      April 27, 2011 at 03:26

      中共经济失败 是要了中国共产党的命 更令大量五毛心惊胆战 因中共人民币遇到通胀急速贬值 五毛钱连放屁都不够 以后改名半毛

    4. 日本人
      April 27, 2011 at 07:37

      您好!何老师,我是一个学习中文的普通的日本人。
      首先请原谅这么不好的中文。

      请教以下;
      您说出口是中国的经济支柱,但是中国已经是GDP第2的发达国家,我觉得中国不应该依靠出口,但是需要扩大内需。
      为了控制通胀,改革汇率是必须的。如果改革汇率被进行的话,世界的资金将集合到中国,金利会上升,就一定可以控制通胀。
      您看怎么样?

      • heqinglian
        April 27, 2011 at 10:37

        尊驾的中文很好。所问谨答如下:

        一、中国这GDP第二,可不是日本的第二。两国经济素质完全不同。中国是依靠过度消耗资源、低人力成本,财富增长的版图主要是土地、资源、金融、股市,前者透支生态环境,后两点造成过度投机。日本是依靠技术进步。
        二、中国人的工资很低,近六七年以来大约只占GDP的12-16%,政府财政收入占23-32%。所以中国经济对外依存度高达70%左右,内需严重不足,百姓有限的钱用来买房子、付子女学费、医疗(称之为压在中国人头上的三座大山)。
        控制通胀在中国是个很复杂的问题。下篇博文会谈这个问题,请再来阅读。
        欢迎常来。

    5. April 27, 2011 at 09:20

      现在国内物价涨势迅猛,生活越来越难了。

    6. 流浪工程
      April 27, 2011 at 13:47

      请问何女士,人民币对美元会不会破6?从种种迹象看,人民币对美元有加速升值的趋势,这真能抑制即将失控的通货膨胀吗?还是另有不可告人的图谋?

      • heqinglian
        April 28, 2011 at 09:33

        短期内不可能,因为升也是小步慢跑。再加之中国人民币升值的决策过程是个非常复杂的过程,还会受到各利益集团的干扰。请看我另一篇新博文。里面谈到这个问题。

    7. limingdao
      April 27, 2011 at 18:21

      在人民币持续升值的预期下,藏汇于民成了政府转嫁危机、掠夺民财的又一手段。藏汇于民,并非藏富于民。

    8. 痛打五毛狗
      April 27, 2011 at 23:14

      当前的中国,经济上全盘照搬西方国家,却又抵制与之对应的政治制度,这样建立起来的市场经济也绝对不可能是真正的市场经济,相应的贪污腐败、环境污染、食品造假投毒也绝对不可能得到根治。各种迹象表明,这种竭泽而渔、杀鸡取卵的经济增长方式也到了尽头,中国经济崩溃已进入倒计时。所以,各位中产阶级们,带上你们的钱(美元,不是人民币)、家人,往美国、加拿大、澳洲、欧洲转移吧,我敢打赌这是个明智的选择。

    9. April 28, 2011 at 06:11

      人民币对美元本来就该一次性升值。这可以大幅减少被国际炒家截击的损失。
      但是政府也没有回旋余地了,如果让人民币升值的话出口就会大大减少。国内发行的人民币就得收回。这是政府最不愿意的。
      总而言之,现在是在死胡同里面,不管如何调都是死。还不如什么都不做,死得安静点。

    10. pupil
      April 28, 2011 at 11:06

      释放外汇储备肯定不会是共产党减通胀的办法。从心理层面讲,高外汇储备提供中共高层外交底气。一个不讲人权,不承认普世价值的政党,不摆阔自己也会看不起自己。舆论,外交上得待遇就马上沦落为北韩金正日之流,顶风臭百里。

      另外,党文化就是过度崇尚财富权势的病态文化。五毛们可以为高储备的党免费工作,但要是知道党妈奶水不足的话,马上会一散而光,甚至倒打一耙。高外汇储备是中共稳定军心,赖以生存的必需。

      目前的高通胀趋势才是刚刚开始,未来的能源粮食价格会继续上涨,严格的物价控制会直接损害民众利益,影响民众生存。说白了物价控制就是违背市场经济,盘剥百姓的又一手段。但除此之外,对付通胀中共别无它策。

    11. AAA
      April 28, 2011 at 16:29

      呵呵,实事求是的说何女士还是讨论经济问题比较有水平。

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    12. 在天朝
      April 29, 2011 at 00:57

      我的意思是中共已病入膏肓,积重难反,饮鸩止渴,身不由己,因此:

      1、天朝通胀本质上是中共长期以来所施行的掠夺性货币政策的结果,对内掠夺百姓,对外可扩大中共制造品的出口、引进资本,可谓一箭双雕。中共乐在其中而终至不可收拾,出来混毕竟是要还的。

      2、汇率问题一直是中共的两难,人民币对外升值,中共恐自身体制承受不起由此而带来的失业冲击。

      结论是:汇率政策救不了中共,经济灾难是打倒中共的唯一手段,中共深知发展才是硬道理,稳定压倒一切。问题是中共本质决定了中共不可能将发展、稳定的基础定位于民心。中共政权治国信条是民可使由之不可使知之。中共终归逃不掉其宿命的下场。这个过程百姓苦,但不如此,不会有新世界。

    13. 在天朝
      April 29, 2011 at 01:07

      更正:1、天朝通胀本质上是中共长期以来所施行的掠夺性货币政策的结果,对内掠夺百姓,配合汇率操纵,对外可扩大中共制造品的出口、引进资本,可谓一箭双雕。中共乐在其中而终至不可收拾,出来混毕竟是要还的

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