• 增城事件:观察政情的一个窗口

    by  • June 16, 2011 • 中国观察 • 75 Comments

    广东增城6•11事件经过四天终告平息,但它蕴含的信息却远比其它事件丰富。无论是中国当局还是研究者,都应该分析这一事件展现的丰富信息。

    增城事件值得关注有几点:

    一、这是一起典型的以地缘为聚合因素的泄愤型群体性事件,参与者基本上与当事人无亲属或利益关系。

    事件的直接起因是6月10日四川籍孕妇王联梅在增城市新塘镇大敦村农家福超市门口经营摆摊,遭保安驱赶。这类城管、保安借整顿市容为名欺负弱者,在中国本属天天发生的常见事件,比这恶劣不知多少倍的事件也未曾引起大的骚乱。但此次却有个特殊诱因,在6•11事件发生之前,在广东潮州市古港镇务工的川籍民工熊汉江因向老板苏某讨要欠薪未果,反而被老板唆使打手挑断其四肢经脉。这一恶性事件在当地的川籍民工中引起众怒,连日都有川籍民工前往潮州市政府外聚集抗议,6日晚更传出有万人示威抗议,并与防暴警察发生严重冲突。王联梅事件就是在熊汉江事件还未平息的情况下发生的。这种情况下,各种虚虚实实的传言很容易导致川籍民工的生存危机感,6•11增城事件是在这一背景下发生的。

    中国群体性事件的组织要素一般有如下特征:血缘型(以宗族亲戚关系为聚合力)、地缘型(同居一地,有共同的利害关系)、血缘+地缘型、族群型(如新疆、西藏)。以2008年贵州瓮安事件为界,此前的群体性事件多有明确利益诉求,如反征地、反污染等。但贵州瓮安事件却呈现一个特征:参与者大多与受害者无相关利益关系,参与闹事纯属泄愤。随着社会仇恨日益加深,这类泄愤型群体性事件日益增多。

    二、成为导火线的孕妇王联梅以及被砍断四肢经脉的民工熊汉江本人的情况及补偿,在事件发生过程中反而淡出,四川民工长期以来因待遇不公而蓄积的各种不满成为他们参与事件的主要情感因素。因此,地方当局虽然都在事件发生后将肇事者迅速拘捕并发布告示,增城市委书记徐志彪到医院看望王联梅,市政府还特别邀请王的丈夫唐学才到现场,对记者表示其妻和腹中胎儿都安然无恙,但还是无法阻止继续从各地赶往增城新塘镇示威的四川民工。这倒并非由于川籍民工完全不相信政府发布的消息,而是他们长期以来饱受歧视蕴积了各种怨恨,趁机发泄。这种泄愤型群体性事件的增多,说明民怨纠结,已经成为一点就炸的火药桶。

    三、骚乱产生的外部效应,已不是引起事发地居民的同情,而是恐惧。所谓“人民”在这里按利益分裂成两大块。广东等经济发展地区的本地居民与外来劳工之间的矛盾由来已久,本地居民认为治安恶化、生存环境过度拥挤、家庭不和(比如“北妹”成了二奶之类)等都是外来劳工带来的。而外来劳工则认为本地人因为地利,完全成了不劳而获的食利者。在冲突发生后,当地人在秩序受到极大冲击之时,首先要应付的是“暴民”可能带来的伤害,所以自发组织了防卫队伍,比如潮州古港社区组织了“红巾军”,增城新塘十多个村也纷纷以“保卫家园”为名纠众武装显声势,防卫“有不法企图”的外地人。这种状态已与明末、清末地方士绅组织民团自保相类。

    最值得注意的是,本地居民与外来民工都表示,其实平常大家都相处得很好,是政府处理得不好,才引发本地居民与外地人的矛盾。这种抱怨,政府最好不要当作耳边风,应该思考政府管得过宽的弊端。

    四、地方当局在处理整个事件中还算是比较克制,但也可能已达到极限。因为现在中央政府实行“维稳”的一票否决制,如果某地发生由拖欠工资、征地等引发的群体性事件,一把手官帽不保。因此,增城事件发生后,地方当局虽然拥有较强的镇压能力,但也不敢高调使用武力镇压。不过,这种冲突其实是一个双方不断探底的过程,下次再有类似事件,很难保证不会发生大规模流血。

    今年北京已经不象去年那么自信,中东北非国家履行“面包契约”比中国好得多,但一旦人民起来,政权终难逃垮台命运,独裁者家族多年搜刮来的财富也被外国政府宣布冻结。从5月下旬以来接连发生的这么多集体爆炸事件,尤其是增城事件,官民之间势同水火这一事实已经不容回避。简言之,还权于民还是继续一党专制,已经成了北京必须要做的选项。

    中国的社会形势虽然有如燃眉之急,但北京却正逢权力交接关口。此时距离明年十八大权力交接还有一年多时间,第四代领导人的地位有如看守内阁,最大愿望是糊弄到权力交接时刻平安下车,而第五代则因还未正式上位,自然也不可能有所动作。中国的局势可能就在这段时期内变得更加恶化。

    (原载美国之音何清涟博客,2011年6月16日,

    http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/06/zengcheng-issue-china/)

    About

    75 Responses to 增城事件:观察政情的一个窗口

    1. 无寸丁
      June 16, 2011 at 22:15

      何老师,电影《建党伟业》的评论很火爆,推荐您看看http://www.verycd.com/entries/506559/

    2. 乡无郎
      June 17, 2011 at 01:04

      听听此时各地大陆人说话的语气,都有一股怨气。多年前听美国人讲话有怨气,这些年好像没有了。

    3. 中共牌坊
      June 17, 2011 at 05:59

      中共对大规模民众抗争 一向搞秋后算账 事件发生过程中 多死几个公安武警不算什么 丢车保帅 事后用钱摆平 不敢在事件中对百姓太过于下重手 一旦事态平缓 中共缓过气 那些百姓就遭殃了 秘密的抓捕百姓威胁家属 各个击破 满门抄斩

    4. 打倒胡紧逃解放全中国
      June 17, 2011 at 09:55

      所谓告别革命派和和平理性非暴力派其实就是保共改良派或者根本就是共匪间谍。中国人民62年的血泪历史已经无数次证明了和平理性非暴力绝对是一条死路。组建中国民主革命军发动武装起义推翻中共暴政才是当代中国唯一正确的道路。突尼斯埃及人民已经胜利了,利比亚也门叙利亚巴林人民也快要胜利了,中国人民也必将取得完全的胜利。

    5. paul
      June 17, 2011 at 20:06

      何老師的觀察很敏銳。現在中央權威弱化,如還自不量力,敢搞一票否決,繼續讓地方當替罪羊,逼急了地方大員(如汪洋、薄熙來等因此遭政治打壓,得不到自己期望的位置),索性脫離中央獨立。再加上中央在南海問題上疲軟得罪解放軍,新辛亥革命就來了。

    6. limingdao
      June 18, 2011 at 06:08

      骗人有术也有道,但不能长久。靠谎言来验证谎言,毫无疑问是荒谬的。

    7. pupil
      June 18, 2011 at 23:35

      再为何老师的观察政情加一点儿细节。目前“主席”访俄失利,遭受挫折。外交日程表的下一站就是11月的巴黎G20峰会。在关押刘晓波,艾未未之后的国际孤立局势下,估计即时抗议示威会让主席的巴黎之行非常尴尬难堪。加上国内增城事件,局势动荡不安,国外南海失土,被小国越南,菲律宾欺辱,这张大国的“脸”有没有底气去法国显一显都成问题。所以好心建议释放艾未未,刘晓波,得一些媒体的正面宣传,可能局面才有改观。如果不行,处办一些腐败官员,出出气也行。

    8. 话语权力
      June 21, 2011 at 07:47

      要不是有89年军队效忠于党而不是人民的先例,大家早就上街了。

    9. 正义2011
      June 22, 2011 at 00:49

      你好,我是河北省石家庄的一名市民,今年3月份,石家庄发生了一件轰动社会的事件,我手里有视频录像,请你们关注并联系我。具体情况如下: 2011年3月11日石家庄舜地房地产公司正常经营,突然被政府查封,几十亿资金被冻结,数千员工面临失业,数万买房人、投资人闻讯后在政府门前下跪,却被警察殴打驱赶甚至抓走!群众代表向政府递交请愿书,却被威胁恐吓,甚至电话被监听;百姓求助无门,在网上发帖被删,组建qq群被解散,论坛里留言的群众被查IP,警察上门警告威胁;所有新闻媒体集体失声,石家庄的姓一夜之间倾家荡产,挣扎在水深火热之中!

      该事件涉及石家庄、保定、邯郸等河北省6个市,5万多群众,涉及资金20多亿。石家庄市政府腐败,与有背景的地产大鳄狼狈为奸,意欲侵吞百姓财产,事件已经发生两月,政府没给百姓一个明确解释和答复,无视百姓疾苦,反而一手遮天,限制百姓言论自由,限制人身自由,百姓怨声载道,恳请媒体关注此事。图文详情请关注天涯网:
      http://www.tianya.cn/techforum/content/828/192236.shtml

    10. tay
      June 28, 2011 at 14:51

      何先生你好;我有一个问题想请教何先生
      从内蒙古锡林浩特发生的群体性事件开始到广东增城再到艾未未重获自由,近来中共政府表现的非常软弱。这是自64后从未发生过的事。根据中共一贯做法似乎其内部出了什么岔子,但是具体发生了什么却很难猜。何先生的提法虽然有一定道理,却没有回答为什么第四代会老老实实交出权力的问题。不知何先生对这个问题有什么看法?

      • heqinglian
        June 28, 2011 at 16:24

        局势如此,坐在大位上的人日子并不好过,因此我想,现在的问题不是第四代愿不愿意老老实实交出权力的问题,而是如何平安交接的问题。共识网有篇“共识之途--采访张木生”里,张木生这样谈:“确实有人这样想,再有一年多就该交班了,下定决心,排除万难,绝不作为,我们现在是抱着定时炸弹击鼓传花”。这等于是指着胡的鼻子在说事了。胡四的最高愿望是平安交接,但也有人希望将脓包挑破,不想糊涂接。比如地方债问题。这十五万亿债务造成极大金融风险,土地卖得差不多了,后任政府手里没多少米了。也许,这就是目前你看来政府软弱表现的一些缘由吧。

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