• 中国地方债务的泥潭有多深?

    by  • June 17, 2011 • 经济分析 • 65 Comments

    最近北京是真急了,沉重的地方政府债务让他们陷入焦虑之中。在虚幻的“世界经济拯救者”光环中飘忽了两年多以后,中国的银行系统资产负债表显露出潜藏已久的危险困境。银监会刚宣布要严控地方融资平台贷款风险,就发现铁道部的资金负债率又触及承受极限,蕴藏极大风险。

    地方债务的规模有多大?

    所谓“地方融资平台”其实就是各级地方政府设立的向银行借款的机构。这两年,全国各银行借给地方融资平台的钱到底有多少?最权威的报告是最近央行网站公布的《2010中国区域金融运行报告》。该报告透露,截至2010年年末,全国共有地方政府融资平台1万余家(省、市、县三级),较2008年末增长25%以上。2010年末银行系统的全部贷款余额为47.92万亿元,其中30%是地方融资平台贷款,总额约为14.4万亿元,其中三分之一是由国家开发银行贷放,其余则由国有商业银行及城市商业银行。现已确定其中有2万亿到3万亿有违约风险。
    地方债务有何特点?

    一、投资效益奇差。据查,地方政府的投资项目,真正能发挥效能的顶多只有35%,也就是说,15万亿债务中可能产生效益回收投资只有5.3万亿,其他的贷款都投在毫无效益的项目上,或经由贪腐和浪费流失。比如铁道部以部长刘志军为首的腐败窝案当中,掌管高铁工程分配的运输局局长张曙光一人就在美国和瑞士存款28亿美元,其妻子女儿早已定居美国,在美国洛杉矶置有三处豪宅。

    二、以地方政府财政收入做担保的项目贷款大多是空头担保。地方融资平台的项目中,有大量没有现金流仅凭财政收入担保和还款的项目贷款,其信贷规模已远远超过了地方政府财政收入能够承载的能力。由于分税制的实施,地方政府财权小、事权大,要用有限的税收承担过多的公共支出,早就债台高筑。尤其是县域改革后,实行省直管县,地市一级财政被空心化了,所以凡属地市一级的财政收入担保大多是空头担保,没有保障。

    过去十余年来,土地出让金以及与房地产相关的税收成为地方财政的重要支柱。今年随着房地产价格下滑,许多地方已出现土地“滞销”的情况。最近一系列统计数据显示,中国的土地价格在持续数年升温后出现回落的迹象。瑞士信贷最近公布的中国房地产市场调查数据显示,中国全国土地平均交易价格在4月份环比下降了32%,比年初下降了51%。中原地产研究中心公布的数据显示,4月份中国一线城市地价水平环比下跌18%。地价下滑过快,严重威胁到地方的财政能力和地方融资平台的还款能力。

    三、地方政府融资平台的违约风险有制度基础。首先,地方人民银行、银监局、商业银行都是依靠地方资源生存的,和地方政府、企业之间有着千丝万缕的联系,为了保GDP增长,政府采取了用新泡沫掩盖旧泡沫的政策,它成了地方政 府融资平台盛行的政策基础。 其次,银行之间的竞争方式及赢利模式导致各银行竞相向地方政府融资平台贷款。中国的银行体系仍然是一个价格管制与数量管制十分严厉的行业。银行赢利主要来源是信贷规模无限扩张中的利差收益。信贷规模一放松,国内银行就使出浑身解数让自己的信贷规模无限扩张。在银根松动期间,不是企业如何申请向银行借钱,而是银行如何找到对象尽最大努力让更多的贷款放出去,而地方政府融资平台则成为商业银行放贷扩张的主要对象。这样的制度条件,无疑是地方政府融资平台迅速扩张的基础。

    北京着的哪门急?

    当前地方政府融资平台的金融风险,不仅仅是地方政府的现金流严重短缺、还款能力薄弱。各级政府直接依赖国有银行贷款来维系当地的政府投资项目和经济,这种信贷模式其实是向改革初期的计划经济体制回归,即地方政府花国有银行的钱,还不起帐时就赖给中央政府;而中央政府焦虑的是,这种模式将导致整个银行系统出现巨额坏账,最后引发金融危机。

    中国将如何应对地方融资平台造成的金融风险?根据新的资讯,有可能出现两种情形:第一种可能是地方政府及利益集团试图游说中央,要求放松宏观调控、结束紧缩性经济政策,让房地产市场再度狂飚。一旦中央再度放松银根,通货膨胀将进一步加剧,并带来难以预料的严重的社会后果。第二种可能是“漂白”和转嫁地方政府债务。日前路透社引述消息人士指,中国银监会、财政部及发改委拟于6月至9月期间处理2~3万亿元可能违约的地方政府债务。做法是将部分债务转入数间新设立的公司,并解除省级及市级政府机构出售债券的限制。将债务转入新设立的公司,将银行的账面处理“干净”。这种做法属于债务“漂白”,并未解决任何问题。而允许地方政府发行债券,则是把地方政府的巨额债务转嫁给购买地方政府债券的民众。地方政府为了解决财政饥渴,很可能用高息利诱民众来购买,这只会造成银行存款搬家,导致银行的银根短缺,但并不能真正化解地方融资平台造成的巨大金融风险。

    (原载美国之音何清涟博客,2011年6月17日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/06/debt-china/)

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    65 Responses to 中国地方债务的泥潭有多深?

    1. 仰天长啸
      June 17, 2011 at 22:01

      比如铁道部以部长刘志军为首的腐败窝案当中,掌管高铁工程分配的运输局局长张曙光一人就在美国和瑞士存款28亿美元,其妻子女儿早已定居美国,在美国洛杉矶置有三处豪宅。

      我屁民一个还能说什么呢?
      这些人——我修改路易十六的一句名言:移民之后,哪管你中国洪水滔天。

      我想问一下何老师,中国大概还需要多久才能走出这样的泥淖。
      我看唐德刚先生的《晚晴七十年》,他说从1840大概需要200年走出“历史三峡”。
      但我看英法等国历史,他们至少是风云激荡了300年左右。
      而且他们是基督文化,我们的奴役文化是如此绵长。
      我并非不怀抱希望,只是怕我此生在这个国度等不到。
      我二十七岁,此时的中国又到了悬崖边。

      • heqinglian
        June 17, 2011 at 22:38

        我只能说,在你的儿子到了你这年龄的时候,希望他过得比你好。

      • gamegun
        June 18, 2011 at 01:31

        不知道何时才能走出这段历史,尽管无论如何我们总要走过去。问题是我们没有准备,尤其是没有心理准备要怎样去面对可能到来的风暴以及风暴过后。大家在无奈的等待,很少人会真正思考。有时候大家聊天,谈到下一代谈到未来——没底、彷徨、焦虑——不知道会怎样。

    2. young
      June 17, 2011 at 22:58

      我想知道'你那个28亿美金数字怎么来的

      • heqinglian
        June 18, 2011 at 08:09

        你用“张曙光”与“28亿美元”这两个关键词搜索,会出现许多相关词条。再一一过滤,找到你认为可靠的资讯来源。

    3. paul
      June 18, 2011 at 23:51

      好比当年大跃进后陈云说的两个炸药包,点城市还是点农村。这次是要么通胀,要么金融危机,选择金融危机可能就是还能拖一段,不过爆炸得就更厉害了。共产党明知死路一条,就是还想拖更多人下水罢了。

    4. 猎手
      June 19, 2011 at 05:33

      人肉搜索;AAA团伙中一员写手其身份曝光,据查S中国东北某市人,此人曾经读过几天书当过几天兵。现居美国某市;常年以商务为身份,以在海外中文媒体上蹲守.钻写跟帖赚钱为幌子,实际在搜集海外异议人士的讯息和窥探美国各种情报(主要猎取军事情报)。建议美国之音及美国警方注意此人。

    5. 共匪祸国
      June 19, 2011 at 22:37

      何老师终于谈经济了,中共倒台必须经济先倒,这样他就玩不成天价维稳、金元外交!中国经济现在是‘山雨欲来风满楼’,崩溃是必然,胡温早就明白这一点。当下他们能忽悠一天算一天,反正不做崇祯宣统,不做戈尔巴乔夫第二就可以啦!

      中共早就丧失民心,‘贱党伪业’被民间骂得狗血喷头。造共产党的反不是今天就是明天。只要天价维稳的金钱链断裂,共党还哪有活路?

      不知道那些臭五毛,又没有自知之明?你别说在美国之音这样的自由地带,就是在严重监控的国内论坛你们这样人露个头,都被狂拍砖。你说你们在这样里不是找踹吗?

    6. June 20, 2011 at 06:45

      为什么都这么悲观呢?
      我认为几年之内共产党就垮台了。
      不是我们把他推翻的,而是共产党自己会把自己搞垮。

      • August 29, 2011 at 19:10

        This article is a home run, pure and slimpe!

    7. 打倒共党
      June 20, 2011 at 14:58

      文章写得不错,不过有点译文味,好象也没写完?

    8. 疑惑
      June 21, 2011 at 02:30

      有人说,中国地方政府债务问题是可控的,而且它已经在着手处理。
      这些政府债务并非外界想象的那样令人担忧, 有以下三个理由:
      首先,地方政府投资公司的债务并非新的,并非事先没有记录在册的债务。这种债务全部都是银行贷款, 而银行贷款全部反映在了月度信贷数据里面.
      第二, 银行提供给地方政府投资公司的贷款多数是商业性的。 在很多国家,银行在给地方政府基础设施项目贷时,收取的利息只超出融资成本20到30个基点。 但中国地方政府投资公司支付的是市场利率,让银行获得200到300个点的息差。 中国银行业承担的风险得到了充足补偿。
      第三, 对楼市过热的担忧被夸大了。 政府确实是越来越多地依靠土地为投资公司的贷款质押, 依靠土地拍卖收入偿付利息。 鉴于中国的城市人口未来10年内将再增长1亿到1.5亿, 目前的土地价格几乎低于其2020年的预计会达到的水平。 土地价格的任何下跌都只能是暂时性回调, 而不是持久的价格崩溃。

    9. June 25, 2011 at 22:52

      qeeqq 朋友你说的,正是1976年以前中学政治课本的中国共产党的口号喊的:资本主义社会的灭亡!正是资本主义自己的掘墓人。我没有看到资本主义法治经济灭亡。看到的法制经济是蒸蒸日上。说别人怎么自己快变成这样了你呢?????

    10. francesco
      June 29, 2011 at 21:28

      中国不是中东,内部管理和组织结构要复杂得多。尤其是,军事实力上与中东相比差距太大。不可能由简单几个问题快速解体。就中东的爆发的事件而言,让中共解体是不可能的。甚至很难存在重大影响的可能。诸多矛盾太多了,还不可能到共同汇聚的时候。至少还需要10年之久。我认为不通过军事手段是无法解决的

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