• “中国概念股”与中国特色

    by  • June 21, 2011 • 世界与中国 • 91 Comments

    在美国股市上热闹了好几年的“中国概念股”由于“账目疑云”等问题被揭露,终于成了欺诈的象征。

    以下是“中国概念股”的凄惨现状:3月以来:24家在美上市中国公司的审计师提出辞职或曝光审计对象的财务问题,19家在美上市中国公司遭停牌或摘牌。美国经纪商盈透证券(Interactive Brokers Group Inc.)已禁止客户以保证金方式买进部分中国公司股票。据报道,被列入禁买名单的中国公司多达130多家,其中大部分是去年以来在纳斯达克上市的中国中小公司和网络概念公司。即使未被列入上述禁买名单的“中国概念股”,受此打击,目前在美国股市上大多也处于气息奄奄之状。

    对中国那些公司来说,本来就是抱着来美国股市捞一把的心思,这种打击所产生的最严重后果就是一伙人经营了七八年之久的APO(反向收购)产业链断裂报废,大不了再重新另辟投机的新天地而已。但对那些帮助中国公司来美上市加持护法的美国会计师事务所与律师事务所来说,目前的灾难却只算是刚开始。

    美国是个比较成熟与讲究责任的社会。为这些中国概念股加持并念“芝麻开门”的责任人,首推身负审计责任的会计师事务所。由于无处可推卸责任,他们必须面对所有指控并承担责任。比如据称名列世界四大会计师事务所的德勤会计师事务所(Deloitte & Touche)受其审计的几家中国公司之累,即使表示会辞去东南融通(NYSE:LFT)外部审计之职,并对自己曾担任中国高速传媒控股有限公司(Nasdaq: CCMC)审计师的经历感到羞愧。在这些中国公司被摘牌后,德勤仍然被损失惨重的投资人列入起诉名单。其余几家大会计师事务所为避免更惨重的损失,已关闭了中国公司通过反向收购以登陆美国资本市场的业务。

    但独有一位与中国概念股很有关系的股市人物,至今仍然毛发无伤,那就是有“股神”之称的巴菲特。

    先说巴菲特与中国概念股的关系。此二者之间有无关系?有。世界股市上,往往有一些股票因为各种原因被赋予特别内涵,“概念股”即此之谓。自从巴菲特在2003年购入中国石油的股票以来,被誉为“股神”的巴氏与中国概念股就有了某种联系。此后,一些与巴菲特发生直接或间接联系的中国股票受到投资者不同程度的追捧,这种现象被媒体称为“巴菲特效应”。

    国内研究者李唯、邓晓辉根据股票与巴菲特发生联系的程度,曾将“巴菲特中国概念股”划分为三类:第一类是巴菲特及其控制的企业真实购买的股票。如在香港上市的中国石油和比亚迪,它们是与巴菲特联系最为真实与密切的股票。第二类是因特定的人物或事件与巴菲特发生联系的股票。如在香港上市的物美商业和在大陆上市的大杨创世,它们与巴菲特所发生的联系虽不密切,但真实性还算确凿,而且通过媒体的报道被广大投资者了解。第三类是虽然未与巴菲特发生直接联系、但却和他的具体投资行为产生共振并被投资者感知的股票。比如,2009年11月3日,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司公告溢价收购美国第二大铁路运营公司北伯林顿铁路公司,引发了中国铁路相关股票的一轮上涨。

    没有巴菲特投资中国石油的示范作用,“中国概念股”在短时期内走红美国股市肯定是不可能的。但投资者能够埋怨巴菲特吗?似乎不能。因为巴菲特本人在中国石油处于较低价位时购入这只股票,以后又在2007年10月中国石油股价远未见顶之前果断清仓完毕,在他清仓后不久中国石油便进入长期下跌状态。跟在他后面购进却未能及时抛出的人,只能怨自己不能审时度势。如今巴菲特投资比亚迪,虽然让人看起来总觉得不靠谱,但跟进购买者如果在法律上抓不住巴菲特什么把柄,却很难将其诉上法庭。

    上述情况的出现与美国证券法律健全有关。任何股票在美国上市之前都需严格审计,《萨班斯—奥克斯利法案》堪称当今世界资本市场上最为严厉的一套法案。至于这套法案都未能防止“中国概念股”晋身美国股市,只能说明中国人那坑蒙拐骗的本事远高于世界水平。严格设了审计关之后,投资者如何炒作股票,那完全是风险自负。美国股市的投资者吃了大亏之后,只能找那些肩负中国公司在美上市审计之责的会计师事务所的晦气,却不能找曾带领投资者奔向“中国概念股”的领头羊巴菲特。

    但中国就不同了。中国政府始终与股市有着说不清道不明的关系,上市审计这一关就非常不靠谱,放任不合资质的国有企业与银行上市圈钱;监管过程枉法行为比比皆是,公司财务欺诈得以实现,或者公司自我炒作套利,股市庄家放风导致散户高位紧跟而让其套牢,……总之,最后是一笔永远与政府部门难脱干系的糊涂帐,股市成为一个充满欺骗作伪、充斥着过度投机者的泥潭。就算巴菲特这类股市天才生活在中国,最大的可能也只是成为恶名昭著的“庄家”。

    在分析了中国的APO利益链条之后,我得说,世界资本市场尤其是美国确实应该检讨自身开门揖盗的教训,筑好篱笆堵好漏洞。但中国公司将在中国股市上获得成功的那套秘籍搬到世界股市,就如同中国政府曾想将“中国模式”推广到世界一样,最后只能是教会世界重新认识那个被虚假繁荣包装起来的充满欺骗的中国。

    (原载美国之音何清涟博客,2011年6月21日,http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/06/china-stocks-and-chinese-characteristics/)

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    91 Responses to “中国概念股”与中国特色

    1. 中共牌坊
      June 22, 2011 at 04:45

      对付骗子 最好的方法是拿出刀子 对付中共 最好的方法是拿起武器!

    2. June 22, 2011 at 06:45

      一个好的制度,能把混蛋变成好人。一个不好的制度,能把好人变成混蛋。大陆善良的人活的非常累呀!!!!!!!

      • 话语权力
        June 27, 2011 at 07:34

        同意。
        痛心。

    3. 韩新
      June 22, 2011 at 06:50

      跟中国打交道,小心咯!

    4. limingdao
      June 22, 2011 at 06:51

      《史记》上有一句话,说的是秦二世胡亥临死之时斥责随身的小跟班为什么以前不说实话,小跟班委屈地说:“要是说实话,我早就没命了;正因为我以前没有说实话,所以才能活到今天!”这句话用到今天的中国仍有现实意义——说谎话可以苟延残喘,说实话立马毙命!

    5. paul
      June 22, 2011 at 09:15

      難怪人說中國PRC是”people republic of cheats“。在中國,騙人已經是不以為恥,反以為榮。馬英九曾說中國當局是“榮辱不分”,雖顯客氣,也算到位。從偷竊知識產權到上市欺詐,再到黑客攻擊,中國充滿了海盜行為,像個大黑洞一樣破壞世界規則。既然中國已經在建”GFW“把自己圍起來了,世界也不用再做中國會融入普世規則的夢,猶豫只會受傷更多。

    6. June 22, 2011 at 16:16

      牵强附会,逢中必反。闭门造车,必遭民主自由阵营唾弃。

    7. pupil
      June 22, 2011 at 23:22

      18日在何老师VOA博客预测中共外交困境需要释放艾未未来解围,话音刚落艾未未就回家了。说明现在的中共已经到了比较好预测的地步。这里介绍用于判断预测中共的简单有效的办法:奥卡姆剃刀法(Occam’s razor),也就是吝嗇定律(Law of parsimony)。非常有用。

      中共贪污腐败,欺诈贪婪,在“中国概念股”案例中展现无遗。这种案例虽说可以进哈佛MBA的反面案例,但实在是不光彩。无论中共敛财的手法有多缺德,多下三烂,从超越和中共个人恩怨的角度讲,我还是想给提一些建设性的建议:接受普世价值,尊重个人权益,在公平竞争中一样赚钱,一样赢得国际尊重。艾未未做到了,可能有人会说是反共起家,投西方所好。但中国人有许许多多成功的例子,无关政治,照样可以效仿。

      共产党当然可以继续走欺骗暴政之路,但仍希望中共能够开放视野,考虑其他的可能性。

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